10 Election Implications

What to expect from the economy after Trump's win

Donald Trump won a convincing victory and is now our 47^th (and 45^th) president. We do our best to avoid talking politics here at Sage Economics, but policy—as it relates to the economy—is fair game. Here’s a few from-the-hip takes about what to expect.

Get ready to merge and acquire

Merger and acquisition activity soared during Trump’s first term and has since fallen off pretty sharply. Antitrust enforcement has been strict under Lina Kahn (Biden’s FTC Chair). While Vance has actually praised Kahn for her actions against Big Tech, M&A activity will rebound during the next Trump administration. This is great news for bankers and lawyers. Investors agree: bank stocks are up big today.

General business optimism

Markets rallied today, but there was an especially large increase in the Russell 2,000, an index of smaller companies that is up about 5% on the day as of this writing.

Odds increase on Trump tax cut extension

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire in 2025. The odds of it being extended went up last night, but which party controls the House (yet to be determined as of this writing) will be critical. If Hakeem Jeffries is the next speaker, it’s possible that the TCJA gets extended but with an uncapped SALT Deduction.

Interest rates will be higher for longer