Here are 26 thoughts on Tuesday’s midterms, hewing as close as we can to our policy not politics rule (but it is an election, so expect some politics…).
This Was Largely About the Economy
We were optimistic about the economy during President Trump’s second term. So were voters, who thought it would be a lot like his economy during his first term.
That has not been the case. Voters particularly took issue with tariffs, gas prices, the conflict in Iran, and corruption, according to exit polls.
Will Congress Restrict Executive Branch Tariff Powers?
It’s possible, and there are a few bills that have already been written (including the bipartisan Trade Review Act). But don’t count on it. A likelier outcome is that Tariff Man becomes Veto Man (at least in this specific regard), preventing any efforts to restrict the executive branch’s power over trade.
A Shocking Margin
The House margin looks to be D+13, the largest in either direction since 1976.
A Generational Shift From 2024
This was a generational shift from one election to the next. Some of these numbers are, quite literally, difficult to believe. According to exit polling:
All House voters shifted 15 percentage points toward Democrats since 2024.
Hispanic voters shifted 28 points left.
18-29 year olds shifted 30 (!!) points.
Not a single race/ethnicity/gender/age combo shifted right.
The Eyes of Texas are Upon Blue
Democrats won every single statewide race in Texas. Even the minor ones like Railroad and Agriculture Commissioner. They hadn’t won a statewide election in Texas in over 30 years. Somehow, this might not be the most baffling outcome.
Et Tu, Mississippi?
Scott Colom (D) holds a narrow lead in the Mississippi Senate election. If he wins this would be the first time a Democrat won a Senate race in Mississippi since 1982.
A Sliver of Good News for Republicans
Republicans have won the past six Congressional Baseball Games. With three-time MLB All-Star Mark Teixeira (R) winning TX House District 21, that winning streak is going to continue.
Also a Peninsula of Good News for Republicans
Republicans swept the statewide races in Florida. The fact that Democrats couldn’t win in this environment suggest the Sunshine State may stay red for some time.
Bad News for Data Centers?
There were 40 ballot measures to restrict data center construction. It looks like all but one of them will pass. That’s just the tip of the bad news iceberg for data centers, though.
Gubernatorial elections in Texas and Georgia, two of the most active data center markets, could weigh on activity. Governors-elect Gina Hinojosa (D) and Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) both campaigned on pausing data center development.
Darline Graham (R), who somehow lost a statewide election as a Republican in South Carolina, had massive backing from the data center industry. Her victorious opponent, Senator-elect Annie Andrews, has called for a two-year pause on new data center projects.
There’s more here, but suffice it to say that anti-data center measures and candidates cleaned up on Tuesday.
