A Brutal Week of Economic Data

Week in Review: July 29-Aug 2

This was a dismal week of economic data capped off by the worst jobs report in a long time (we’ll have a full post on that for all subscribers in the next few days). As a silver lining, it’s now possible—bordering on likely— that the Fed cuts rates 0.5 percentage points at their September meeting. That’s great news for anyone working in interest rate sensitive industries.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

People kept traveling by air at a nearly-record pace through the end of July, according to TSA data.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices moved one cent higher to an average of $3.60/gallon. That’s still $0.27/gallon cheaper than one year ago. Diesel prices fell for the third straight week and are low by recent standards.  

Tuesday

Job Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Job openings fell slightly in June and seem to have leveled off over the past few months. Labor shortages have eased significantly from the worst of the pandemic, yet 4.9% of jobs were unfilled on the last day of June, higher than in any month on record before 2021.

Despite still-elevated job openings, the labor market appears to be in a state of paralysis. Hiring fell to the slowest pace since January 2014 (excluding the early covid months), while employers laid off just 0.9% of all workers during the month, matching the lowest level on record. Workers also quit their jobs at the slowest pace since 2017 (again, excluding early covid months).

There are a few possible explanations here. A lot of people switched jobs over the past few years, and it may be that both employers and employees are happy with the status quo. Less optimistically, uncertainty is elevated given imminent rate cuts, weakening economic growth, and a looming presidential election, and everyone might be in a holding pattern until they have a better sense of what the future holds.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Nationwide home prices are up 5.9% over the past year according to this measure.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer confidence increased slightly in June, but that’s not saying much—consumers remain pretty dour about the economy.

Wednesday

Fed Interest Rate Decision