(A Very Bad) Week in Review: Feb. 10-14

Inflation heats up, spending cools down, & more

There might be love in the air for Valentine’s Day, but there was nothing to love about this week’s economic data. Inflation came in hot, retail spending came in weak, and average mortgage rates are still flirting with 7%. At least President Trump honored the holiday, displaying his ongoing love affair with tariffs.

Question for you football/entertainment fans: who has had the worst 2025 so far: a) Mark Andrews b) Justin Tucker c) Patrick Mahomes or d) Drake? I know, tough one.

Monday

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices increased to $3.25/gallon this week and will likely continue to trend higher through spring. Diesel prices increased to $3.67/gallon, but that’s still about $0.44/gallon lower than at this time last year.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel remains roughly in line with 2024 levels, according to TSA data. This is slightly concerning for those searching for signs of economic progress, though it’s entirely possible that bad weather has impacted travel volumes.

Tuesday

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Small business optimism fell slightly in January but remains elevated compared to a few months ago. No secrets here—small business owners really like Trump. That said, the soft components (expectations) have shot higher, while the hard components of the index (the ones that reflect current conditions and plans) are scarcely improved.

Wednesday

Consumer Price Index (Inflation)