Another Week of Upside Surprises

Week in Review: January 15-19

If you’re waiting for a sign that the economy is weakening, well, settle in. It might be a while.

With a few small exceptions, this was another week of encouraging data releases, including record oil production, still-falling gas prices, and upside surprises on consumer sentiment, retail sales, unemployment claims, and more.

Monday

Martin Luther King Jr. Day

If you’re curious about MLK’s views on economics, this Axios Primer is a good overview.

Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

This WSJ Survey asks about 75 economists to make some forecasts. The average respondent put the odds of recession over the next 12 months at just 39%. That’s down from 63% in October 2022 and is the lowest reading since April 2022.

Forecasters’ expectations for 2024 include unemployment edging above 4%, inflation slowing to about a 2.3% annual rate, sluggish economic growth, and the equivalent of four 25 basis point rate cuts.

Tuesday

Gas Prices

Gas prices fell for the 16^th straight week. With nonsense in the Red Sea and cold weather affecting production in some areas, we’ll see how long this streak can continue.

Diesel Prices

Diesel prices inched higher for the week but remain just above the lowest level since the middle of 2023.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

The number of passengers screened by TSA has fallen back to roughly 2023 levels over the past week. That may have something to do with frigid weather across much of the country, though.

Wednesday

Retail Sales