Cocoa prices have surged about 130% since January 1st and 290% over the past year due to bad weather, a Ghanaian financial crisis, and a virus that’s devastating cocoa fields. Chocolate Easter bunnies might seem absurdly expensive as a result, but you should savor them; only a small portion of these price increases have been passed onto consumers, so get your chocolate fix while you still can (interest rates are way too high to finance a candy bar).
Beyond the dire chocolate situation, this week brought us updates on new home sales, consumer confidence, inflation, and more.
Monday
New Home Sales
New home sales inched slightly lower in February but are up 5.9% over the past year. Despite the year-over-year increase, sales have trended lower lately, falling about 9% since the peak in July 2023 (these are seasonally adjusted so the season shouldn’t matter). While new home sales have fared better than existing home sales due to inventory levels, mortgage rates are still too high to overcome for most would-be buyers.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
The number of passengers screened by TSA continues to trend upward and is now more than 9% above 2023 levels. Note that the year-over-year divergence is at least partially due to the timing of Easter (and spring break), which is ten days earlier this year.
Tuesday
Key Bridge Collapse
The Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed after a container ship hit one of its piers. This tragic accident has huge economic implications for our home town, but there are few specifics to discuss at this time; “rebuilding the bridge could take anywhere from 18 months to several years, experts say, while the cost could be at least $400 million — or more than twice that.”
Durable Goods Orders
Durable goods orders (things that last at least three years) increased 1.4% in February—a larger increase than expected—after plunging nearly 7% in January. Orders for nondefense aircrafts (think Boeing) increased about 25% in February, which is not nearly enough to make up for the 64% decrease in January.
Bigger picture, durable goods orders are up 1.8% year-over-year through the first two months of 2024. This is an important measure to track because it’s one of the six indicators the NBER uses to diagnose a recession.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
This measure of consumer sentiment was pretty much unchanged in March, though consumers felt better about the present and worse about the future. Consumer confidence remains significantly lower than it was before the pandemic.
Gas Prices
Gas prices jumped to $3.64/gallon, the highest price in over five months, and will continue to rise in the coming months.
Diesel Prices
Diesel prices inched less than $0.01 higher but are down on a monthly and yearly basis.
Wednesday
Mortgage Applications
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