Consumer Tariff Guide
How to prepare for higher prices without panic buying toilet paper
We’re a few weeks away (at most) from feeling the effects of tariffs. No one knows exactly how this will play out, but product shortages and higher prices are all but certain given current news from the freight industry.
So if you know you need any of the things listed below, and it won’t hurt you financially to buy them now, act accordingly.
Worst case scenario for you as an individual (which is the best case scenario for the economy), prices stay calm, there aren’t shortages, and you use up some storage space buying ahead of time. It’s not like prices are going to fall throughout the rest of the year.
What to buy now
Appliances big and small
If you know you need to buy new appliances (dishwashers, refrigerators, HVAC, washer/dryer, etc.) in the near future, it’s a good idea to do it ASAP. The same goes for smaller appliances (think: all the stuff crammed into your kitchen cabinets), some entertainment equipment like TVs and speakers, and power tools.
Even if you’re planning to buy an appliance made outside of China (maybe from Samsung, LG or Whirlpool), the price is still going to rise because 1) if supply goes down, prices go up and 2) these companies still rely on parts from China.
Note that phones and computers are both exempt from the reciprocal tariffs (though still subject to the 20% fentanyl-related ones). So the price of those will rise, but probably not by enough that you need to buy ahead.
Toys and games
The U.S. imports about $17 billion in toys every year, about $13 billion of which comes from China. Toys are also sold with remarkably small margins, so these tariffs will be punishing, especially for independently owned toy stores.
I’ve started getting way, way ahead on Christmas shopping for my toddler, nieces, and nephews.
Baby stuff
Babies need an absurd amount of stuff—so much that I’m currently storing it in my basement shower—and these are going to be some of the hardest hit products. The WSJ estimates that 95% of imported strollers and 75% of imported infant furniture (think cribs) come from China.
Fortunately, the stuff you need for a baby/toddler is all pretty predictable. If you know you’ll need something in the next year or so, it probably makes sense to buy it now.
Furniture
We import a lot of furniture (especially furniture made of plastic) from China.
Christmas (and other) decorations
I mentioned Christmas shopping above, but you should definitely buy any Christmas decorations you know you’ll need right now—estimates put the share made in China at 80% or higher. Interesting note: A majority of the world’s Christmas decorations (including fake trees, ornaments, lights, etc.) are made in the Chinese city of Yiwu.
The same goes for most decorations, whether for a birthday party, Halloween, or other occasion.
Anything plastic, really
China produces about a third of the world’s plastic. If it’s made of plastic, the price is probably going to rise.
Shoes
China also produces about one-third of U.S. shoe imports.
What not to buy now
Toilet paper
We make it here. The supply chain is stable. Seriously, don’t panic buy toilet paper (if I’m wrong and there are shortages, print out this post and use it instead).
Same goes for paper towels, cleaning supplies, and other household essentials.
Basic clothing
These supply chains are diverse enough that there shouldn’t be major pricing or availability problems.
Personal hygiene products
Groceries
Pet Food
Looking Ahead
We’re still taking questions for our upcoming Q&A post, so feel free to send in any asks.
This week is crammed with data releases, including construction spending, first quarter GDP growth, and Friday’s critically important jobs report, among a whole lot more.
We’ll cover that and everything else economy-related in our every-Friday Week in Review post. That’s only for paying subscribers. If that’s not you and you want it to be, just click the subscribe button.