Crude Week in Review
Inflation, oil, & more
Ten-year treasury yields are up 0.3 percentage points since the conflict in Iran started, while oil prices are up about $30/barrel. That’s bad news for anyone planning to buy a home, drive a car, or buy anything that has to be shipped anywhere using a vehicle that runs on diesel. Which is to say, an EV-driving wandering aesthetic may be relatively unaffected by recent events.
This week brought us updates on inflation, small business optimism, GDP, consumer sentiment, and a whole lot more. Oh, and it also brought Maxx Crosby to the Ravens. . .oh, wait, no it didn’t.
Monday
Oil Stuff
The International Energy Agency, which has deemed this “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” announced that it will release a record 400 million barrels of oil, while the White House is going to release 172 million barrels from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
But that wasn’t enough to bring down crude oil prices, which are nearing $100/barrel. Late last year, the price of oil was routinely below $60/barrel.
As you might expect, gas prices continue to surge, with the average up to $3.63/gallon as of the week ending March 9th.
Diesel prices have also spiked, with the average price up to $4.86/gallon from $3.80 just two weeks ago. While higher gas prices are going to hurt consumers at the pump, $5.00/gallon diesel (which will likely be a reality in the next week or two) is arguably the bigger economic problem since that impacts shipping costs and therefore the price of food, fertilizer, etc.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel remains in great shape, according to TSA data, with TSA checkpoint numbers up about 3.5% compared to the same week last year. Of course, these are all flights booked well before the recent jump in jet fuel prices. Expect airfares to begin rising significantly during the weeks to come.
Tuesday
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Small business optimism fell slightly in February but remains in pretty decent shape. The most interesting part of this is are quotes from NFIB members (page 4 of the link) that show agricultural firms having a particularly hard time with rising input prices. The crisis of the moment relates to fertilizer, which is having a tough time getting here from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar. For many farmers, this is planting season.
Existing Home Sales
Sales of existing homes (that is, not new houses) increased slightly in February but are still lower than during the same month last year. Disruptive weather played a part, but mortgage rates were close to 7% during February 2025 and now they are closer to 6%. The lack of year-over-year improvement in home sales is disappointing.
