Debt-Fueled Week in Review

Inflation, deficits, & more

Good news for anyone waiting for disinflation: lettuce prices plunged more than 16% in July.

The bad news is the reason why lettuce prices fell, and also most of the other economic data that came out this week.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel remained 2-3% below year-ago levels over the past week, according to TSA gate check numbers. This, like a few other indicators in today’s review, is a downbeat sign for the U.S. consumer.

Oil Stuff

Both gas and diesel prices fell this week, but they’re still pretty ugly. It’s particularly unusual for gas prices, which averaged $4.14/gallon over the past week, to be this high this late in the year.

Tuesday

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Small business owner confidence improved in July, rising to the highest level in almost a year. There was a large improvement in hiring plans, which may or may not translate into an actual bump in hiring.

Existing Home Sales

Sales of existing homes (i.e., not newly built) slowed in July and are just barely higher than one year ago. As the NAR chief economist put it in the release, “there’s no doubt that the housing market would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%.” Unfortunately, it could be a while until that happens.

Wednesday

Consumer Price Index (Inflation)

Consumer prices, as expected, inched just barely higher in July, rising 0.1% for the month.