This week was light on economic data releases but heavy on economic news; President Trump started his second term with an onslaught of executive orders that ranged from good, to silly, to “blatantly unconstitutional.” This AP rundown of all the orders provides a good overview.
Monday
MLK Day
There are a lot of different takes out there on MLK’s economic views. This brief primer from Axios is a pretty good (and short) overview.
Tuesday
Egg Prices
Egg prices are at an all-time high due to bird flu and will likely go higher in the coming weeks. I’ll be massively relieved if expensive eggs is the worst thing that comes from this round of avian flu.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel is about 5% above 2024 levels over the past week, according to TSA data. This is reassuring—travel volumes were subdued to start the year, but we can now pretty conclusively chalk that up to bad weather.
Gas Prices & Diesel Prices
Gas prices increased to $3.23/gallon this week—the highest price since the end of October—and should keep rising as we head toward Spring.
Diesel prices rose sharply and, at $3.72/gallon, are at the highest level since early August. This weekly increase has a lot to do with frigid temperatures.
Wednesday
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage applications were essentially unchanged last week, rising 0.1%. Purchases are up slightly, refinances are down slightly. Both remain exceptionally low.
Thursday
CoreLogic Single Family Rent Index
The cost of renting a single-family home increased just 1.5% between November 2023 and November 2024. That’s the slowest annual growth in over 14 years. With mortgage rates as high as they are, it’s not a bad time to be renting.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates fell for the first time since early December but, with the average 30-year fixed at 6.96%, are still really high.
Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims increased again and, while still low, remain slightly above year-ago levels.
Continued claims for unemployment insurance keep trending gradually higher, but that’s slightly complicated by the wildfires, with big increases in California the past two weeks.
U.S. Crude Oil Production
U.S. oil production was essentially unchanged at 13.5 million barrels per day last week. That’s a ton of oil, albeit slightly less than we were pumping in December.
Friday
Existing Home Sales
December was the best month for existing home sales (i.e., not new houses) since February. That’s the good news. The bad news is that 2024 was the worst year for existing home sales since 1995. That’s not great and won’t get better until mortgage rates come down.
Links of the Week
Sorry, No Secret to Life Is Going to Make You Live to 110 (New York Times)
Why is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive? (Construction Physics)
Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age? Or will the vibe soon shift back to the left? (The Silver Bulletin)
Final Thoughts
After this week, my outlook for the economy is: Better
Not much to go off here, but slow rent growth is a good sign on inflation and I was relieved to see air travel rebound. It was also nice to see that the new administration didn’t implement tariffs on day one (or days 2-4, either).
Looking Ahead
Data releases pick up next week with the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, some housing stats, and more.