Fatherly Week in Review
Oil, interest rates, & more
Modern dads spend more time than ever helping out at home, a fact I’d gloat about were it not for the pesky Married moms line on this chart.
And while being thanked is nice, there’s plenty to be thankful for this Father’s Day, not least of all that the U.S. infant mortality rate fell to the lowest level ever in 2025.
On the economic front, this week brought us significant deescalation in Iran, lots of housing data, and update on retail spending, and more.
Monday
Industrial Production
This measure of how much our manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors produce inched up 0.1% in May and is up a modest—but pretty okay—1.7% over the past year. This is one of the indicators the NBER uses to diagnose a recession, so it’s nice to see growth.
NAHB Housing Market Index
Homebuilder confidence fell in June, and the decline was due to a drop in the Single Family Sales: Present component of the index. High mortgage rates and gas prices have made this a dud of a summer selling season.
Oil Stuff
Oil prices have fallen to levels not seen since early March as the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that, among other things, reopens the Strait of Hormuz (for at least 60 days). Both gas and diesel prices fell again as a result. Note that the EIA data only goes through the 15th. Safe to say, gas is well below $4.00/gallon and diesel is well below $5.00/gallon now.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel has trended about 0.5% above year-ago levels over the past few weeks. Given the World Cup, it’s a little disappointing that travel numbers are up so modestly.
Tuesday
New Residential Construction
Housing starts fell sharply in May, plunging to the lowest level since May 2020. This data series can be volatile, and there’s a large (+/-9.8%) margin of error. Given broader market fundamentals, however, this isn’t terribly surprising.
