Grim Week in Review
Oil, death pledges, & more
The word “mortgage” comes from an Old French term that literally means “dead pledge.” It’s unfortunately appropriate for the current housing market, which has been flattened by some rate-boosting event every time it starts to revive over the past few years.
Beyond some macabre housing stats, this week brought us grim updates on oil, producer prices, and a lot more. Oh, by the way, start Gunnar Henderson in the final against Venezuela and the US would have won the World Baseball Classic.
Monday
Industrial Production
This measure of how much our manufacturing, mining, and utilities industries produce increased 0.2% in February and is up 1.4% year over year. Not great, but not too bad, either. This is one of the six indicators that the NBER uses to diagnose a recession, so even tepid growth is encouraging.
NAHB Housing Market Index
Homebuilder confidence improved slightly in March. While this measure is higher than during mid- 2025, it’s still extremely low by historical standards. Homebuilders are particularly glum about the traffic of prospective buyers, so it’s not a surprise that 37% of builders cut prices in March.
Oil Stuff
The oil situation is not improving and—with no end in sight for the conflict in Iran—will keep getting worse for quite some time.
Gas prices continue to race higher, up to $3.85/gallon for the week ending March 16th. That’s about a dollar higher than in mid-February, meaning that U.S. consumers will spend $375 million more on gas every day than they did one month ago. Can’t we just declare victory and head to Taiwan?
Diesel prices surged above $5.00/gallon for the first time since 2022. That’s going to hurt a lot of parts of the economy in a lot of different ways. Food prices are headed higher as is any good that needs to be transported in the near-term.
White House Tries to Make Oil Stuff Better
The White House is expected to temporarily wave rules about summer gas formulations, which we switch to during hotter months to reduce air pollution, in an attempt to lower gas prices. The White House also waived the Jones Act—one of the very worst economic policies in existence—for the next 60 days.
[Please, please, permanently waive the Jones Act.]
These moves, which don’t exactly inspire confidence that the Iran conflict is going to end anytime soon, will shave a few cents off a gallon of gas. That’s not nothing, but it also won’t make consumers feel much better about soaring pump prices. Expect ongoing efforts to mitigate price increases, but the best way to do this is to end the war and start Gunnar Henderson.
Tuesday
Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales, which are supposed to hint at what actual home sales will look like in a month or two, increased in February but are still down on a year-over-year basis. That’s pretty disappointing given how much mortgage rates fell between February 2025 and February 2026. More recently of course, mortgage rates have been edging higher.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel remains elevated compared to the same time last year, according to TSA data, but we’ll see how long that lasts with jet fuel prices soaring and TSA lines lengthening.
