The American Gaming Association projects that Americans will wager $2.7 billion on March Madness this year (and that’s just through legal sportsbooks). That’s enough money to have purchased the Baltimore Orioles (the world’s second most valuable asset IMHO) and still have $1 billion in the bank. Alternatively, $2.7 billion could fund the federal government for about … 3 hours and 45 minutes, probably to finance student loan forgiveness.
This week’s economic data were relatively free of madness, with updates on a few different housing indicators, a Fed interest rate decision, and more.
Monday
NAHB Housing Market Index
This measure of homebuilder sentiment improved in March and is now at its highest level since July. Builders are particularly optimistic that sales will increase over the next six months. That’s amazing, right? After all, mortgage rates remain near their cyclical highs. Homebuilders are benefitting from the lock-in effect, in which Americans have barricaded themselves in existing homes tied to fixed mortgage rates often in the twos.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
The number of passengers screened by TSA remains about 6% above 2023 levels as people continue to travel. I’m not thrilled by this because this means someone will be sitting next to me as I travel to my next presentation. If I liked people, I wouldn’t have become an economist. Ok, now let’s move on to . . .
Tuesday
New Residential Construction
About 2% more residential units were authorized in February than in January. That gain was pretty evenly distributed between single family and multifamily units. Housing starts increased by about 11% and are up 6% year over year. Single-family starts are up 35% over the past year, while multifamily starts are down 36%.
What stands out about February is that builders finished housing units at the fastest rate since January 2007. While that may be partially due to weather delays encountered in January, it’s clear that a lot of new housing units are hitting the market. That should translate into lower rent growth and more new homes sold over the next few months.
Gas Prices
Gas prices increased to $3.57/gallon, the highest price since October, and the price of gas is poised to rise further into spring. One suspects that will cause consumer confidence to tumble.
Diesel Prices
Diesel prices inched just slightly higher but remain about $0.18 lower than at the same time last year.
Wednesday
Fed Interest Rate Decision
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