Inflation, Housing Stats, & More

Week in Review: July 22-26

Lot of data this week as the summer moves toward its home stretch. This week brought us updates on a few different housing market indicators. Those are, as expected, not great, but today’s inflation data provides a small cause for optimism for those in the homebuying and selling marketplace.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Travel volumes held steady at a level slightly below the record travel seen in early July, according to TSA data. Obviously, passing through a TSA checkpoint doesn’t mean that you are going anywhere thereafter (see Delta Airlines for reference).

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell to their lowest level since the end of June and, at an average of $3.59/gallon, are down about $0.11/gallon over the past year. Diesel prices fell for a second straight week and remain pretty low by historic standards. This is presently not a major headwind for the American consumer or the U.S. economy.

Tuesday

Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales (i.e., not new homes) fell again in June, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Again, home sales won’t rebound until rates come down. The good news is that rates could come down within the next few months, but probably not by enough to fundamentally alter what has become a stagnant housing market characterized by both too few buyers and sellers. I suspect we need 30-year fixed mortgage rates to dip by about two percentage points before the marketplace is unlocked in earnest.

Wednesday

New Home Sales

The number of new homes sold in June was virtually unchanged from July but down considerably on a year-over-year basis. Like I said above…

The good news is that inventory levels are climbing, and that bodes well for whenever it is that rates fall (prediction: 2025 and 2026 will be associated with significant declines in interest rates).

Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications fell by about 2.2% last week. There’s a pattern here!!

Thursday

GDP Growth