Inflation, Retail Sales, and More

Week in Review: July 11-15

There was more than inflation headlines this week, but nothing arrived on Monday, so let’s go right to…

Tuesday

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

This index fell in June. Big takeaway: the share of small business owners expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to its lowest level ever, which is saying something. These data go back 48 years (Great Recession, Vietnam, Watergate, ‘88 Orioles). The index embodies ten components ranging from plans to increase employment to earnings trends. Small businesses became more pessimistic along all ten dimensions in June. Not great. Expect employment growth to slow.

Wednesday

Consumer Price Index (CPI, AKA Inflation)