Job growth rebounds, labor force shrinks
The November 2024 jobs report
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The U.S. labor market rebounded in November, confirming that the measly job growth in October was indeed the result of hurricanes Helene and Milton and the now-resolved Boeing strike.
Payroll employment grew by 277,000 for the month, and the prior two months of growth were revised up by a combined 56,000 jobs.
That takes us to a three-month average of about 190,000 jobs per month—the fastest since May but still well below 2023/early 2024 levels. Which is to say: job growth is cooling slightly, but it’s far from cold at this point.
The labor force data in today’s report, however, was a bit frostier. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in October to 4.2% in November, but that 4.2% is actually 4.246%, so just a few thousandths away from rounding up to 4.3%.
The labor force shrank for the second straight month, and the labor force participation rate is down to the lowest level since May. More importantly, the share of prime age (25-54) people with jobs fell to 80.4% in November, the lowest rate since December.
By Sector
Healthcare continues to add jobs at a rapid clip, and restaurant hiring bounced back big time in November after slowing to a crawl in October. The majority of the government jobs added for the month were non-school local government positions, and the federal workforce actually shrank in November.
The loss in trade, transportation, and utilities employment was due to a huge decline in retail employment. Department stores lost a particularly large 10,300 jobs for the month. I’m going to chalk this up to wonky seasonal adjustments, because the data show retail trade losing a ton of jobs in each of the past three Novembers.
The lack of job growth in the information segment (think tech and media) was more legitimate. Publishers and broadcasters lost a couple thousand jobs, while tech added just 2,100 for the month.
You can read what Anirban had to say about the construction labor market over at ABC.
Final Thoughts
There are signs of labor market cooling, but nothing to suggest an imminent economic downturn. Today’s release ups the odds of a December rate cut, though next week’s Consumer Price Index data will be the real determinant.
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