Jobs, GDP, Inflation, & More

Week in Review: Oct. 28-Nov. 1

This week was loaded with economic data, most of which was encouraging with the glaring exception of today’s dismal but hurricane-distorted jobs report (read our full post on that from earlier today).

Next week is a lot slower for economic data releases. Given Tuesday’s presidential election, I doubt anyone cares.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel slows this time of year, yet travel volumes are back to being well above 2023 levels, according to TSA data. Of note: you can see the brief period where hurricanes pushed travel volumes below 2023 levels on this graph.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell to $3.22/gallon last week, the lowest level since January. Diesel prices inched up to $3.57, which is still about $1.00/gallon cheaper than during the same week last year.

Tuesday

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

This measure of consumer sentiment increased sharply in October, and currently the fewest percentage of consumers expect a recession over the next 12 months since the Conference Board started asking the question in the middle of 2022. My theory: consumer sentiment is deeply partisan (and based on who’s in the White House), and Republican sentiment has improved with the looming election.

Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

On the one hand, this data release, which pertains to September, was probably affected by Hurricane Helene. On the other hand, it’s clear that labor availability has improved significantly. The share of jobs that are open (4.5%) and the share of workers who were laid off (1.2%) are both the exact same as in January 2020, and the share of employees who quit their job in September actually fell below the pre-pandemic level. That’s good for employers and less good for employees.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Home prices were 4.2% higher in August 2024 than in August 2023. Despite a total lack of buying/selling activity, prices continue to drift higher.

Wednesday

GDP Growth