Economic data releases will be pretty scarce until the government reopens—prediction markets now put pretty goods odds the shutdown will last into early November—but there’s still plenty of economic news to review. Today’s review, for instance, looks at small business and homebuilder optimism, the Fed’s Beige Book, several manufacturing surveys, escalating U.S.-China trade war tensions, and most importantly of all, the lead content of your protein smoothies.
Monday
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
The number of people flying soared (pun intended) this week, but…I don’t trust the data.
The TSA travel number website says, “Due to a lapse in federal funding, this website will not be actively managed,” and yet, someone—or some automatic process—continues to update it. That fact, combined with the incredible increase in passengers, suggests that something wonky is going on here.
I have heard that some federal workers have chosen to take the shutdown as an opportunity to travel. But I suspect that many expected to be back at work by now. By the way, it would also be nice if the Baltimore Ravens would return to work.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
The number of active U.S. oil rigs declined again this past week, with the August-September rebound apparently firmly in the rearview. As a result, oil production will likely eventually fall back from July’s all-time high, even as August and September set new records.
Not coincidentally, gas prices dipped below $3.20/gallon for the first time since March. Diesel prices also tumbled and are at a 4-month low.
Tuesday
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
This measure of small business optimism fell in September. That’s the first decline in three months, though the reading remains above the 52-year average. The measure’s uncertainty index rose to its fourth highest level on record, which is not good for activities that require substantial confidence, like hiring and initiating construction projects.
Is There Lead in Your Smoothie?
A review by Consumer Reports found what they report to be astronomically high levels of lead and cadmium in certain protein powders (especially plant based ones). This caused serious levels of panic from the smoothie drinking crowd, but it seems like the CR review blows the whole thing way out of proportion. Which is to say, it’s probably safe to stick to your existing smoothie recipe.
[What does this have to do with economics? I don’t know. Give us a break here. There’s not much data during a government shutdown.]
Wednesday
The Beige Book
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