Loose Week in Review
Layoffs, lending standards, & more
This was a dark week for the once vaunted Washington Post, which laid off hundreds of employees and cut the entire sports department and most of the Metro department. For our readers in suburban Maryland looking to fill their local news void, the Baltimore Banner recently expanded their coverage into Prince George’s and Montgomery counties.
Today should have brought us January jobs data from the BLS, but the brief government shutdown delayed it until next Wednesday. Nonetheless, this week delivered quite a bit of economic news and data, including updates on job openings, immigration levels, lending standards, and a lot more.
Got questions? If so, be sure to submit them for our upcoming Q&A post.
Monday
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing activity expanded in January for the first time in a year, according to this survey of industry managers. This is good news for a beleaguered manufacturing segment, but ISM notes that this upbeat indication is “tempered by commentary citing that January is a reorder month after the holidays, and some buying appears to be to get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues.” In other words, the particularly noteworthy strength in new orders may be merely temporary.
Comments from respondents keep getting bleaker:
“’Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.”
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)
The Q4 2025 SLOOS is loose, but lending standards sure aren’t. Fewer than 2% of banks loosened standards for commercial and industrial loans, while fewer than 9% loosened them for construction and land development loans.
Responses were slightly better regarding demand for loans, with the share reporting higher demand just slightly above the share reporting weaker demand. It appears that banks are embracing a more defensive stance given still lingering economic uncertainty.
Oil Stuff
Gas prices increased for a third consecutive week, though they’re still low at just a smidge below $3.00/gallon. Note that this isn’t the seasonal increase that happens as stations switch to summer blend. That won’t start until later in February.
Diesel prices also rose and are now up $0.40/gallon over the past month.
Domestic oil production cratered to its slowest pace since late 2024. It’s safe to mostly blame the cold weather for that. Actually, oil prices have been edging higher recently. Should that continue, production should follow.
Tuesday
Trump Administration…increases immigration?
The White House announced a temporary final rule that will effectively double the number of H-2B temporary nonagricultural worker visas for FY 2026. This will result in nearly 65,000 more H-2B visas and is the direct result of lobbying on behalf of frustrated businesses.
Shhhh! Nobody tell Stephen Miller about this.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
This last winter storm put a freeze on air travel, according to TSA data, but it’s bounced back since. Air travel volumes were unchanged on a year-over-year basis for the week ending February 4th.
