Low Week in Review

Inflation, job losses, & more

Michael and Susan Dell (of Dell computer fame) donated $6.25 billion—that’s billion with a “b”—to fund Trump Accounts (an account a parent can open for a child born between 2025 and the end of 2028 that will receive $1,000 in seed funds from the federal government).

The Dell donation will add an additional $250 to the accounts of children living in zip codes with median incomes below $150,000. Put another way, the Dells gave $250 to 25 million children.

Sage Economics will be making a similar donation as soon as we get just a few more paid subscribers (similar, not exact, and invested in the Oriole’s starting rotation).

On the data front, this week brought us updates on the manufacturing and service sectors, private sector job losses, inflation, and a lot more.

Monday

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The manufacturing sector contracted for a 9^th consecutive month in November, according to this survey of industry managers. No surprise: the comments from respondents have a lot to do with tariffs and “trade confusion.”

The Beige Book

The labor market is struggling, according to this Fed-published collection of anecdotal info. A key quote: “Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs.” And that’s exactly what we observe – employers are using attrition to shrink payrolls. My concern is that at some point hiring will remain soft while layoffs accelerate. That hasn’t happened yet.

Tuesday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Travel volumes bounced back over the holiday weekend, according to TSA data, and are roughly back in line with 2024 levels. This data can be a little wonky around this time year because of the timing of the holidays, but this series looks far less concerning than it did one week ago.

Oil Stuff

Gas prices fell to a low, low, low, low, low, low $3.12/gallon (meant to be read to the rhythm of Flo Rida’s 2007 hit, “Low”). That’s the lowest average price since the first week of June 2021.

Diesel prices, which are not deserving of a single “low” or “boots with the fur,” fell to $3.76/gallon, but are still up $0.20/gallon over the past year.

November has been a record setting month for oil production, with the week ending Nov. 28 setting yet another all-time high.

Wednesday

ADP Employment Report