Mad Week in Review
Oil, jobs, & a lot more
March Madness is now April Madness as conflict rages in the Middle East—America remains the number 1 seed, right?—and oil/gasoline/diesel prices remain sky-high. But this week’s attention was captured by a blockbuster Friday jobs report, though how good that report actually is depends on the eyes of the beholder (Zack, fwiw, found it “miraculous”).
Monday
Texas Manufacturing Survey
Manufacturing activity expanded in March, according to this Dallas Fed Survey, albeit at a slower pace than in February. That’s not particularly interesting—it’s the comments from respondents are the juicy part of these surveys, and the comments did not disappoint.
Three examples that really cover the full range of business conditions:
From a computer and electronic product manufacturing respondent: “I am thinking about recommending to our board to close the company.”
From a machinery manufacturing respondent: “Spring has sprung. It’s truly like the balm of Gilead. After an extended period of ailment and woe, the healing has occurred and we are on our way to greater things. Our business growth thus far in 2026 is like a sweet fragrance that is healing our loss and hardship from prior years.”
From a food manufacturing respondent: “High density Hispanic channels are down. Costs are up, and freight is increasing fast. Tariff chaos has wreaked havoc with all of our export customers and seasoning suppliers.”
Yes, the comments are interesting, but in the aggregate, don’t provide too much insight regarding how the overall economy is performing, or even insight into that state’s manufacturing segment. The point is that this is an economy with big winners and losers. It’s all or nothing for many.
Oil Stuff
Gas prices continued their rapid climb, rising to a nationwide average of $4.13/gallon during the week ending March 30th. Diesel prices also kept soaring, up to $5.40/gallon. That’s a staggering $1.92/gallon higher than at the start of 2026.
Those prices are going to keep rising, as of this morning (Friday), U.S. oil prices are trading above $112/barrel.
Put simply, the Strait of Hormuz needs to open, and it needs to open soon. Can’t we all just get along?
Tuesday
Job Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
The U.S. hiring rate (employees hired/all jobs) fell to 3.1% in February. That’s the lowest level since April 2020, when the economy lost 20 million jobs and the unemployment rate surged to 15%.
Of course, just 1.1% of workers were fired or laid off in February. That’s exceptionally low, especially compared to the historically high 8.6% layoff rate in April 2020.
Employees were also reluctant to leave their jobs in February, with the 1.9% quit rate matching the lowest level since—you guessed it—April 2020.
The takeaway here is that it remains a great time to have a job and an extraordinarily bad time to need one. We’ll get to the blockbuster jobs report in a minute or two but let me foreshadow this by telling you that I am skeptical about the headline number in the context of other readings.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer sentiment improved slightly in March, but I don’t think that captures some of the pump-price-related pessimism that probably didn’t surface until the end of the month. Despite the modest increase, confidence still appears to be trending downward since its 2021 peak.
Perhaps most importantly, consumer inflation expectations surged in March. That can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If firms know that consumers expect higher prices, they’ll meet those expectations.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel survived the TSA line craziness and remains above year-ago levels, jumping out of the frying pan only to land in the surging-jet-fuel-price fire. Airfares have already increased sharply, and this is nothing compared to what will happen if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month or two. Let’s be friends.
