March Madness, Retail Sadness, & More

Week in Review: March 17-21

March Madness started this week. Like millions of other Americans, my will to live is now entirely dependent on my favorite school winning basketball games (War Eagle).

The White House refrained from new tariff announcements this week. We’ll pick back up with that when the reciprocal tariffs are announced in early April, if not sooner.

On the economic news and data front, this week brought us updated retail spending numbers, a few housing indicators, a Fed interest rate decision, and more.

Monday

Retail Sales

Retail sales increased just 0.2% in February and, after falling pretty sharply in January, remain well below December 2024 levels. Put simply, people are spending less at stores and restaurants than they were a few months ago.

It’s possible that this is the start of a longer-term slowdown. I’m not convinced of that just yet, not until we see March’s spending data.

NAHB Housing Market Index

This measure of homebuilder confidence fell again in March and is very low by historical standards. High interest rates and tariffs on softwood lumber will do that.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell again this week and are down to $3.18/gallon. We have a push-and-pull situation going on here—the switch to summer-blend gas typically pushes prices higher this time of year, but increased OPEC+ production and softening demand are pulling them lower.

Diesel prices fell to $3.55/gallon, the lowest price this year.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel picked back up this past week, according to TSA data, and is back to about 3% higher than during the same week last year. As noted last week, domestic airlines have slashed their earnings estimates for this year due to softening demand, so it’s worth keeping an eye on how travel demand holds up over the next few months.

Tuesday

New Residential Construction