Mortgage Backed Week in Review
Jobs, housing, oil, & more
The Bernie Sanders to President Trump policy pipeline is alive and well; the President indicated a desire to ban institutional investors buying additional single-family homes and defense contractor dividends and stock buy backs (as well as executive pay caps).
Those weren’t even close to the most important economic policy announcements to come out of the White House during a week that was already loaded with economic data releases, including on jobs, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, residential construction, and a lot more.
If you missed it earlier, be sure to check out our longer post on today’s jobs report (free for all subscribers).
Monday
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The manufacturing industry continues to suffer, contracting for a 10th consecutive month in December and at a faster pace than in November, according to this survey of industry managers. Comments from respondents make it abundantly clear that tariffs are crushing the manufacturing segment by driving up costs and diminishing demand.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
It’s a strong start to the year for air travel, according to TSA data, with volumes up nearly 3% during the first week of 2026.
Other critical segments had a less strong start to the year, including the Baltimore Ravens and their kicker Tyler Loop. Not to pile on, but c’mon man. My trash talking days are over. To Ravens management: please hire Brian Flores as head coach and Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator. Many thanks and Happy New Year, Anirban.
Tuesday
Oil Stuff
Gas prices continued to slide and are down to an average of $2.94/gallon. Developments in Venezuela have put downward pressure on oil prices, which is good news for drivers, but domestic oil producers have to be fuming (about lower oil prices, not opportunities in Venezuela). If crude prices go much lower than they already are, we’ll likely see declines in domestic production which, for the time being, continues at record-setting pace.
This dynamic—the president wants low oil prices, domestic producers want the exact opposite—will be an interesting one to follow going forward.
Diesel prices also fell and are below $3.50/gallon for the first time since June. Lower fuel prices serve as a stimulus to consumption and are another reason to believe that the first half of 2026 will be economically solid overall.
