Nervous Week in Review

Home buying, durable goods, & more

New week, same story: atrocious economic sentiment and largely okay economic data.

When will that story change? I’m guessing the first or second week of May, starting with rising unemployment claims in California and then spreading east.

Container ships take about 3-4 weeks to go from China to Los Angeles, and container bookings from China to the U.S. are down 60% since early April. At some point, that’s going to lead to logistics layoffs (truckers, warehouse workers, etc.).

As for this week, we got updates on a few types of home sales, manufacturing and consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, and a Beige Book.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel remained barely above 2024 levels over the past week, according to TSA data. This is an improvement over two weeks ago, when travel volumes were below year-ago levels, but this is still a slight cause for concern.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell to $3.27/gallon this week. This is pretty unusual—gas prices usually rise during spring as stations switch to summer-blends. While consumers will appreciate lower gas prices, the cause—soft demand—is worrying.

Diesel prices fell to $3.54/gallon, with the decline also due to softening demand, especially from ground freight.

Tuesday

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

This survey of manufacturers in the fifth Fed district (VA, MD, NC, SC, D.C., and most of WV) shows that activity slowed in April, prices paid increased quickly, and expectations took a nose dive. Respondents’ expectations regarding future staffing levels fell to the lowest level since 2009.

Wednesday

New Home Sales