Predictions for 2024

Surely nothing we'll regret in here

Having just posted our grades for our 2023 predictions, it’s time to take a stab at forecasting 2024. What could go wrong?

Average Monthly Job Growth

Annual

Anirban: +80,000

Zack: +140,000

Unemployment Rate

June 2024

Anirban: 4.1%

Zack: 3.9%

December 2024

Anirban: 4.3%

Zack: 4.0%

Real GDP Growth (annualized rate)

Annual

Anirban: 1.4%

Zack: 1.9%

Year-over-year Inflation (CPI-U)

June 2024

Anirban: 2.7%

Zack: 2.6%

December 2024

Anirban: 2.5%

Zack: 2.2%

Federal Funds Rate – Upper Limit

June 2024

Anirban: 5.1%

Zack: 4.9%

December 2024

Anirban: 4.6%

Zack: 4.4%

Odds of Recession in 2024

Anirban: 64%

Zack: 22%

Sectoral Job Growth in 2024

Strongest

Anirban: Healthcare, Social Assistance

Zack: Leisure and hospitality

Weakest

Anirban: Financial Activities

Zack: Information