Prime Day, Home Construction, & More

Week in Review: July 15-19

This was a wild week for political developments but a relatively tame one for economic news, at least until a global Microsoft outage caused by a cybersecurity firm shut down computer systems across the globe this morning.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Travel volumes have fallen back a bit since the all-time record on Sunday July 7^th, but TSA data show that the number of passengers screened remains about 5% above 2023 levels.

Tuesday

Retail Sales

Retail spending was unchanged in June, but that’s actually great news because 1) it was expected to decline and 2) excluding car dealerships (which are interest rate sensitive) and gas stations (gas prices fell sharply in June), sales increased 0.8%. That’s the fastest monthly increase excluding cars and gas since January 2023.

Big picture, consumer spending is holding up pretty well despite inflation and some signs of slowing in the labor market.

NAHB Housing Market Index

This measure of homebuilder confidence fell in July and is at the lowest level since December. No real surprise here: homebuilders won’t feel better until rates come down.

Gas Prices

Gas prices were virtually unchanged this week are down about $0.07/gallon over the past year.

Diesel Prices

Diesel prices fell for the first time in over a month and remain pretty low compared to the recent peak in September 2023.  

Wednesday

Amazon’s Prime Day