Quiet Week in Review
The Strati of Hormuz, retail spending, & more
Last Friday’s “reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz proved the type that really does necessitate quotation marks; Iran said “no, never mind, it’s actually still closed” on Saturday morning, less than 24 hours after the initial announcement. Oil prices yo-yoed, falling to $90/barrel last Friday before zipping back above $106/barrel as of this writing.
Geopolitical and oil market volatility aside, this was a quiet week for economic data releases.
Monday
Oil Stuff
Oil prices, as mentioned above, have rebounded from last Friday’s lows and are back above $106/barrel as of this writing.
Gas prices fell to $4.18/gallon during the week ending April 20th, though they appear to be rising again according to more real time data. Diesel prices also fell during the same week but at $5.40/gallon are still punishingly high.
There’s been a slight increase in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but nowhere near what needs to happen to alleviate pressure on oil markets.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel volumes have been below year-ago levels for more than a week. There’s still a chance that this just has to do with the timing of spring break, but given rising air fares and broader uncertainty, it wouldn’t be surprising if travel stays subdued over the next several weeks.
Tuesday
ADP Pulse Employment Data
Hiring picked up in late March and early April, according to this preliminary data from ADP. While this isn’t the most authoritative data source, it’s very plausible that job growth is accelerating.
Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales, which are supposed to give us an idea of what actual home sales will look like a month or two down the road, rose in February. That said, sales were down in January due to weather and likely fell again in March due to higher mortgage rates. Don’t put too much weight on this.
