Record Oil Production, Inflation, & More

Week in Review: Oct. 9-13

This week brought us new data regarding inflation and small business sentiment (among other topics) and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Despite an initial surge, oil prices are presently hovering around $86/bbl, about 2.5% lower than one month ago. That might have something to do with record domestic oil production and a still sluggish global economy.

Monday

Gas Prices

Gas prices plunged during the week ending October 9^th. At $3.81/gallon, they are now about $0.19/gallon cheaper than one year ago.

Diesel Prices

Diesel prices fell about $0.10/gallon this week and are now at their lowest level since early September.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Nearly 2.5 million people passed through TSA security during the week ending October 10^th. That’s the most since the middle of October and 2.5% more than during the same week of 2019. Summer might be ending, but the travel industry remains hot.

Claudia Goldin wins the Nobel Prize

Claudia Goldin won the Nobel Prize for economics “for having advanced our understanding of women’s labor market outcomes.” This is a very worthy winner! Here are a few links if you want to read more:

Marginal Revolution’s overview (including videos about her research)

This Twitter thread listing 5 graphs/exhibits from her papers

This Betsey Stevenson essay about her (from Bloomberg, so may be paywalled)

End of the Orioles Season

This week ushered forth the end of the Orioles’ best season in several decades. None of the five best regular season teams advanced to the championship series, a sign that the MLB should reconsider the current playoff format.

Tuesday

Small Business Optimism Index

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell in September. We’ve talked a lot about how economic sentiment has diverged from economic data (I’m fine, but things are bad for everyone else), and this brings more of the same. The hard components of the index, which pertain to things that can be measured like hiring and cap ex plans, remain in good shape. The soft components, which pertain to expectations and satisfaction, do not.

Wednesday

Producer Price Index