Reopened Week in Review
Oil, Hormuz, housing stats, & more
Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” this morning, at least for the remainder of the ceasefire in Lebanon. Oil prices are plunging, stocks are roaring, and treasury yields are drifting lower.
Of course, the Strait was supposed to reopen following the previous ceasefire agreement and didn’t, though markets certainly seem more optimistic this time around.
Monday
Existing Home Sales
Sales of existing homes (i.e., not newly built) fell 3.6% in March and were 1.0% lower than in March 2025. Blame mortgage rates.
Oil Stuff
Oil prices are falling off a cliff due to the alleged reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That’s good news, because gas prices were unchanged during the week ending April 13th, with the average at a still-punishingly-high $4.25/gallon. Diesel prices fell slightly but at $5.61/gallon are still up more than $2.00/gallon since the start of the year.
Going forward, this is the critical chart to watch.
Even if the Strait reopens and traffic through the Strait rebounds as quickly as it fell, we’ve still lost hundreds of millions of barrels of oil production due to the closure. That’s going to affect fuel prices for some time.
Tuesday
Producer Price Index
Prices received by U.S. producers rose sharply in March, but that had a lot to do with higher oil prices. Core prices (exclude food and energy) actually increased at a slower rate. While that’s mildly encouraging, higher energy prices will eventually translate into higher other prices, and the inflation outlook is not great at the moment.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
This measure of small business owner confidence fell in March and is at its lowest level since April 2025. That’s due to higher oil prices, which “spooked consumers and owners alike.”
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Well, air travel volumes slipped back below year-ago levels as of the week ending April 15th. That could be because of the timing of Spring Break, or it could be because of the way higher jet fuel prices are pushing up airfares.
