Sci-fi Week in Review
Inflation, construction spending, & a lot more
On Sunday, Citrini Research published a science fiction story envisioning an economy ravaged by AI in 2028. It went viral, so viral that it was cited as a cause of Monday’s sizeable market dip.
This is fun speculative fiction, but it’s just that: fiction. This Citadel Securities note nicely outlines many of my objections to the Citrini piece.
Improbably, that wasn’t this week’s most important economic connection to science fiction; a tussle between the Pentagon and Anthropic evokes Skynet, the apocalyptic AI featured in the Terminator movies (more on this under Thursday).
This week’s biggest nonfiction story is that average mortgage rates dipped below 6.0% for the first time since 2022. Read on for updates on that, consumer confidence, construction spending, inflation, and a lot more.
Monday
Companies Sue for Tariff Refunds
FedEx filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration and is seeking a full refund of the IEEPA tariffs it paid over the past year (the Supreme Court ruled those tariffs illegal last Friday), joining thousands of other companies who had already initiated lawsuits with the U.S. Court of International Trade. Notably, FedEx has vowed to pass any refunds on to its customers.
The White House has signaled that it will fight to keep the $133 billion in illegally collected revenue.
Oil Stuff
Gas prices typically rise from early March to early June as refineries switch to the more expensive summer-blend, so it’s no surprise that gas prices inched higher for the sixth straight week. At $3.07/gallon, it’s still pretty cheap, though.
Diesel prices also rose and are above $3.80/gallon for the first time since November.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Another squall of winter weather suppressed air traffic, according to TSA data, but fundamentals here look good, with far more people flying than during early 2025 (weather permitting).
Tuesday
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer confidence improved slightly in February but is still down substantially from the November 2024 cyclical peak. Interestingly, Gen Z has the best sentiment over the past six months while Gen X has the worst.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Home prices fell slightly in December and, on a national basis, are down nearly 0.5 over the past three months. Given how slow home sales are at the moment, I’m all for anything that improves affordability.
