Tesla debuted its new roadster last night, and the car flew—quite literally flew through the air—in a way that we wouldn’t have believed were real it not for the live audience.
Why is this economics newsletter leading off with links to a flying car? Because it’s incredible, and that’s not a word we’d use to describe any of this week’s economic data.
Monday
Nobel Prize Goes to Hall and Woodford
Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 Nobel Prize in economics for their research on the “microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization.” Put as simply as possible, they used models based on household and business decision-making to show how monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize the economy.
If you want to read more, see Marginal Revolution’s mid-size write-up or Noahpinion’s long form one.
Tuesday
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales (i.e., not newly built) increased 1.5% in September, but that’s not saying much because August was such an abysmal month for the housing market.
One takeaway is that this is a great buyers market (provided you aren’t financing or can stomach rates). “Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power. Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers.”
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
This measure of small business owner confidence fell slightly in September. For the third straight month, owners reported labor quality and availability as their biggest issue, followed by inflation. Overall, not much of note here.
Treasury Yields
Treasury yields fell slightly this week, though they remain extremely elevated. This is a little surprising given the hotter-than-expected inflation releases (discussed at length below), which you’d expect (or we’d expect, anyway) to push yields higher.
So what happened? Anthropic, the maker of Claude, announced that their revenues only increased 45% in the third quarter, which was less than investors expected and at least slightly tempered optimism about the AI build out.
Oil Stuff
Both gas and diesel prices fell slightly this week but remain really high relative to pre-Iran conflict levels.
