This week was loaded with economic data releases and news, including a short-lived spending freeze, consumer confidence, GDP growth, saving, and steep tariffs potentially going into effect tomorrow.
Monday
New Home Sales
New home sales picked up in December and finished 2024 2.5% higher than in 2023. The bigger story here is that the number of new homes for sale rose again and now stands at its highest level since 2007. New homes continue to account for a virtually unprecedented share of the housing market right now, and it appears the recent surge in mortgage rates means those markets are take longer to sell.
Trump Admin OMB Spending Freeze (and Block, and Rescission)
The Office of Management and Budget issued a memo telling federal agencies to pause all federal loans and grants. The intent was to give agencies time to align their spending with Trump’s priorities on reducing environmental and DEI spending. The memo lacked detail, to say the least, and the confusion led to issues with Medicaid and Pre-K programs, among others.
On Tuesday, a judge temporarily blocked the freeze while everyone tried to figure out the details, and on Wednesday, the OMB rescinded the initial memo.
The White House has since issued a brief Q&A on the OMB’s guidance. One could argue that OMB dropped the ball, which is why I’ve proposed renaming it to the Office of Mark Andrews.
TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers
Air travel declined over the past week, according to TSA data. Tuesday 1/28 was the worst day for travel since Thanksgiving. This could be a function of the OMB spending freeze and attendant diminished travel among those who feared not being reimbursed, but I’m open to other explanations.
Tuesday
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
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