Time Loop Week in Review

Forecasts, retail sales, & more

Back in 2022 and 2023, forecasters expected an imminent recession despite strong consumer spending, ongoing job growth, and low unemployment. Notably, the economy survived that period without a downturn.

Just a few years later, we’re right back in the same situation—economic sentiment is nosediving, but the data remain pretty upbeat.

One difference: 2022-23 was a slow burn fueled by inflation and rising interest rates. This time, it’s a flash fire ignited by the April 2^nd tariffs and related uncertainty.

Here’s hoping that recession predictions prove unfounded for the second time in four years.

Monday

WSJ Forecasting Survey

Forecasters are pretty glum, according to the Wall Street Journal’s April 4-8 survey of 75 economists and business leaders. Expectations for 2025 real GDP growth have fallen from 2.1% in January to 0.8%, while 12-month recession odds have risen from 22% to 45% and the expected December 2025 unemployment rate has jumped from 4.3% to 4.7%.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel edged back above 2024 levels over the past week, according to TSA data. That might have something to do with the timing of Easter, which was on March 31^st in 2024. Overall, travel volumes remain subdued.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell to $3.30/gallon this week, down $0.41/gallon from the same week last year. Prices generally rise throughout the spring as gas stations switch to the summer-blend gas, but oil prices have fallen due to tariff-related demand concerns.

Diesel prices fell and, at $3.58/gallon, are $0.48/gallon cheaper than one year ago.

Tuesday

Empire State Manufacturing Index

This survey of New York manufacturers (conducted from April 2-9) shows that expectations for business conditions fell to the lowest level since the start of the series in 2001. Note that Canada imports more U.S. goods than any other country…

The graphs of the index’s forward looking indicators are all going down—except for prices paid and received, which are going up.

ABC Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index

These measures of construction activity and sentiment held up decently well in March, with backlog actually increasing and contractors remaining generally optimistic about the next six months.

But—and does anything before the “but” actually matter?—the survey was conducted from March 20 to April 6, and those responding after the April 2 tariff announcements were significantly less upbeat, especially regarding profit margins.

About one in five contractors reported tariff-related project delays or cancellations. Keep an eye on how that number changes with next month’s CBI/CCI data.

Wednesday

Retail Sales