This was about as light as a week can get for economic data releases, with just a handful of relatively minor updates. You won’t hear us complaining.
Monday
ISM Services Index
The services side of the economy grew for the 27th straight month in September, according to this survey of purchasing managers. Thirteen of the 17 sectors tracked by the survey expanded. Four didn’t, including construction.
As always, the most interesting part of this is the comments from respondents; tariff complaints are out, fuel price complaints are in.
Treasury Yields Rise Even Higher
Treasury yields bounced around this week and remain extremely elevated, and we’re now living in an economic environment that most Americans have never experienced. This is the first time anyone under 45 has lived through a period of rising interest rates.
Oil Stuff
Oil prices bounced around this week but are, all things considered, still pretty high. Even so, both gas and diesel prices retreated for the week, though they remain extremely elevated.
Tuesday
The Trade Balance
The U.S. trade deficit expanded about 14% in August as imports grew (almost entirely due to data center equipment) significantly faster than exports. Aside from early 2025, when importers were racing to beat the April 2025 tariffs, this is the largest the trade deficit has ever been.
