Week in Review: April 15-19

Mortgage rates, retail sales, & more

Mortgage rates jumped back above 7% for the first time since early December. For someone buying the median priced home with 20% down at these rates, their monthly payment would be about 95% higher than it would have been four years ago.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that this week’s economic data was better than expected (housing market aside) and the odds of recession over the next year are as low as they’ve been in a long time.

Monday

Retail Sales

Retail spending increased faster than expected in March as spending accelerated at gas stations, eCommerce sites, building supply stores, and restaurants and bars. Over the past year, retail sales are up 4.0% (slightly faster than inflation). This, along with recent employment data, suggests that the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace.

NAHB Housing Market Index

Homebuilder sentiment, which was unchanged in April, has ramped up since the end of 2023 but remains pretty low by historical standards. This likely won’t change until interest rates come down.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

The number of passengers screened by TSA has fallen the past few weeks and is as close as it’s been to 2023 levels since early February.

Tuesday

Industrial Production

Industrial production increased 0.4% in March, but it was still a pretty ugly quarter for this important metric. Still, March’s improvement is encouraging, even if industrial production is unchanged over the past year. It remains the case that the goods side of the economy is far weaker than the services side.

New Residential Construction