Workplace Injuries, Homebuilding, & More

Week in Review: Nov. 18-22

This week brought us updates on homebuilder confidence, which rose, homebuilding, which didn’t, consumer sentiment by political party, which is always good for a laugh following an election, and more.

Monday

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

Homebuilder confidence increased in November, according to this survey, rising to the highest level since April. Homebuilders’ view on single-family home sales over the next six months rose to the highest level since April 2022.

I think this might have more to do with homebuilders feeling better post-election rather than any real change in market conditions, but I can’t figure out when in November the survey was conducted.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Travel volumes have (somewhat mysteriously?) plummeted over the past week, according to TSA data, falling well below 2023 levels.

I suspect this is due to the timing of Thanksgiving, which was on the 23^rd in 2023 but is on the 28^th this year, and that we’ll see a rebound in passenger volumes over the next few weeks. Anirban thinks this might be due to consumers running out of cash. Neither of us are particularly confident about this, and that’s okay. We’ll know what’s going on with this data series in the next few weeks.

Tuesday

New Residential Construction

Permits to build new homes fell about 1% in October and are down about 8% from October 2023. Single-family permitting increased slightly, while multifamily continued to fall.

The number of housing units under construction remains elevated but, as you can see below, is plummeting. Lower interest rates will eventually help, but expect residential construction to slow until those lower rates actually arrive.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell to $3.17/gallon last week, the lowest price since last December. Gas prices typically fall this time of year and should continue to do so in the coming weeks.

Diesel prices fell to a very low $3.49/gallon. For context, diesel was about $0.17/gallon more expensive 10 years ago.

Wednesday

Workplace Injuries & Illnesses for 2023