Another Bad Week in Review: Feb. 17-21

Homebuilder and consumer confidence, housing starts, & more

Last week’s economic data was bad, and this week’s—including homebuilder and consumer confidence, housing permitting and starts, and more—wasn’t much better. One exception to this otherwise disappointing week: we finally got some federal permitting reform with Wednesday’s executive order on NEPA regulations.

Monday

Presidents’ Day

No economic data releases on Presidents’ Day, but here’s a Twitter thread (from Raven’s safety Kyle Hamilton) about which president would win in a Royal Rumble. The most popular answers seem to be Teddy Roosevelt—objectively the correct choice—and Abe Lincoln.

Tuesday

NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

This measure of homebuilder sentiment fell sharply in February. Builders haven’t been this pessimistic about the six-month outlook for home sales since 2023. High interest rates are bad for homebuilding, and tariffs (threatened or otherwise) on lumber imports certainly don’t help.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices increased to $3.28/gallon this week and should continue to trend higher through May or June due to higher demand and the switch to summer-blend gasoline. Diesel prices inched up to $3.68/gallon but are still way lower than one year ago.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel has picked up a little and is back above 2024 levels, according to TSA data. This is encouraging and suggests that bad weather is to blame for weak travel volumes during the first 1.5 months of 2025.

Wednesday

New Residential Construction