(Election) Week in Review: Nov. 4-8

Consumer Sentiment, Rates, & More

I think you would agree that the headlines this week revolved around a Federal Reserve meeting and an AFC North tussle between the Ravens and Bengals. Otherwise, this was a relatively slow week for economic data releases and, given the presidential election (oh, right), a relatively massive one for clues about the next four years of economic policy.

At a glance, the biggest election winners are: tariff-exemption-seeking lobbyists, merger and acquisition lawyers, Elon, crypto, and Freddi9999, an anonymous French guy who made $50 million betting on Trump to win in prediction markets.

Monday

End of Daylight Savings Time

DST is atrocious. Rather than rehash my rant from 2022, I’ll link to it.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Travel volumes fell off sharply last week according to TSA data. The weekly average has dipped back below 2023 levels. As it turns out, people don’t love traveling right before a presidential election. Lot of people may have stayed home to vote. Also, there are likely some ripple effects from recent hurricanes.

Tuesday

Presidential Election

For those who haven't heard because you were focused on the Federal Reserve meeting or trying to recover from the Yankees’ defensive practices, Donald Trump won convincingly. We’ll have more on this in the coming weeks, but for now you can read Zack’s post, 10 Election Implications.

ISM Services

The services side of the economy grew in October, at the fastest rate since mid-2022, according to this survey of industry leaders. This should surprise precisely no one. The services side of the economy has been stronger than the goods side for years.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell pretty sharply to $3.19/gallon last week. That’s the lowest price since mid-January. If you have election stress, it’s a great time to go for a long, contemplative drive, perhaps contemplating how someone making more than $40 million/year can’t cover first base.

Diesel prices fell to $3.54/gallon, $0.83/gallon cheaper than one year ago.

Wednesday

Mortgage Applications