Feuding Week in Review

Construction, job stuff, & a lot more

The two most powerful men in America had a public falling out yesterday, so you might have missed that this week was jampacked with important economic data releases. No worries—we have you covered with a rundown on a bleak construction spending release, a worrying survey on the services side of the economy, a wonderfully boring jobs report, and whole lot more.

Monday

Construction Spending

Construction spending fell in April, and it fell pretty sharply. Private sector construction activity is down 2.2% over the past year, and that’s not accounting for inflation, and residential (-5% year over year) is even worse.

Going back to 2023, private nonresidential activity excluding manufacturing and data centers has fallen 4%, and manufacturing construction spending fell sharply for the month and has officially turned over. With the exception of data centers and a few public segments, there’s just not a lot of momentum out there.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell again during the last week of May and is now at the lowest level since January and down 6% from the same week last year. Low oil prices and economic uncertainty are not good for domestic oil production.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The manufacturing sector shrank for the third straight month in May, according to this survey of industry managers. Respondents to the survey highlighted tariffs and uncertainty as huge impediments to their businesses, even as tariff rates were—in some cases—lowered. As one explained:

“Tariff whiplash continues while the easing of tariff rates between the U.S. and China in May was welcome news, the question is what happens in 90 days. We are doing extensive work to make contingency plans, which is hugely distracting from strategic work, plus it is also very hard to know what plans we should actually implement. The 10-percent tariff on other countries is impactful as well, and it is unclear if/when deals will be made.”

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel fell off sharply after labor day and is now about 3-4% below year-ago levels, according to TSA data. Keep a close eye on how travel holds up over the summer; it’s one of our most real-time indicators of consumer health.

Tuesday

Job Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Job openings inched higher April, but the Great Stay largely continues. Hiring is slow, but employers aren’t laying people off and workers aren’t quitting. This makes a lot of sense given heightened uncertainty.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell down to $3.26/gallon this week. Again, this is nice for drivers, but bad for what it signals about demand. Diesel prices also inched lower for the week.

Wednesday

Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Go to 50%