Independent Week in Review

Jobs, manufacturing, construction, & more

This week brought us important updates on a few labor market indicators, some industry surveys, construction spending, and a lot more.

The biggest takeaway: the Fed will almost certainly hold rates steady at their July meeting. The White House will not appreciate that display of central bank independence, even if it is a fitting tribute to July 4^th.

If you missed Anirban’s post from earlier today about the jobs report, you can check that out here.

Monday

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

The manufacturing outlook in Texas remained downbeat in June, according to this survey. The comments from respondents were particularly bleak, and that has a lot to do with rising input costs.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell again during the week ending June 27^th. The number of oil rigs is down about 10% year over year, while the number of gas rigs is actually up about 12%. With oil prices back to the mid-$60s and tariff uncertainty still firmly in place, don’t expect rig counts to rebound any time soon.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices fell during the final week of June and, at $3.29/gallon, are still pretty low. Diesel prices also fell slightly but are still about $0.30/gallon higher than at the start of June.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Air travel slipped again this week and is back to about 1% below 2024 levels, according to TSA data. That’s not horrible, but it would be encouraging if travel picks up over the July 4^th weekend.

Tuesday

Construction Spending