Inflation, Rates, & More

Week in Review: Nov. 11-15

This week gave us new data on inflation, retail spending, and more. If you’re hungry for more election content, check out our 10 Election Implications and Trump Tariffs 101 posts.  

Monday

Veterans Day

I’m very much for more Federal holidays, and Veterans Day is as worthy as they get. A few economic/demographic facts about veterans:

• The population of veterans has fallen from about 25 million in 2000 to roughly 17 million as of October 2024.

• The unemployment rate for veterans stands at 2.8%, significantly below the economywide rate (4.1%).

• The number of employed male veterans has fallen nearly 50% since 2000, while the number of employed female veterans has increased about 18%.

Tuesday

NFIB Small Business Optimism

Small business owner optimism improved in October, but they’re still a pretty dour bunch. Expect that to change with the November release, which will capture small business owners’ reactions to the election.

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey

Banks kept their lending standards largely unchanged in the third quarter, despite interest rate cuts, and demand for most kinds of loans appears to have weakened. It will take at least a few more rate cuts before borrowing activity increases.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Travel volumes rebounded after falling off during the week of the election, according to TSA data, and are now right in line with 2023 levels.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices inched down to $3.18/gallon last week. That’s the lowest price since late 2023. Gas prices typically fall this time of year, so expect more of the same over the next few weeks.

Diesel prices fell to $3.52/gallon, about $0.78/gallon cheaper than one year ago.

Wednesday

Consumer Price Index (Inflation)