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Jeremy Johnson's avatar

I agree that the Jones Act is bad policy, but this inference is sloppy.

Using a 4x increase in Gulf-to-West-Coast shipments during a temporary waiver as evidence of normal suppressed demand ignores the obvious confounder: the waiver occurred during an Iran/Hormuz-related energy shock. Given the West Coast’s exposure to imported crude and refined-product supply chains, a surge in alternate Gulf supply is exactly what one would expect in a crisis.

That does not vindicate the Jones Act. It probably condemns it more narrowly: the law makes U.S. logistics less flexible when flexibility matters most. But that is different from proving the waiver-period volume reflects ordinary demand that was sitting there all along.

As a paying subscriber, I expect better causal discipline than this.

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