The UE rate typically doesn't surge until during a recession, but it does tend to start rising before a recession officially begins (graph here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE ) For instance, with the Great Recession, the UE hit a low point of 4.4% in Q2 2007 and had risen to 5.0% by the start of the recession in December 2007. With the dot-com recession, the UE hit a low of 3.8% in Apr-20 and had risen to 4.3% by the start in Mar-01.
Great perspective Zack!
Isn't the unemployment rate a lagging indicator of recession?
The UE rate typically doesn't surge until during a recession, but it does tend to start rising before a recession officially begins (graph here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE ) For instance, with the Great Recession, the UE hit a low point of 4.4% in Q2 2007 and had risen to 5.0% by the start of the recession in December 2007. With the dot-com recession, the UE hit a low of 3.8% in Apr-20 and had risen to 4.3% by the start in Mar-01.
Ok, when do they call it a "recession?" During or after it happens?