Strikes, Housing Stats, & More

Week in Review: Feb. 19-23

It’s happening. I’ve been saying for months that this economy would slow, and it’s becoming more obvious. Last week we highlighted hot inflation numbers, interest rates higher for longer, and weakening retail sales. The markets tumbled last week. It was a good week for us pessimists and we had not had one for many weeks.

This was a relatively slow week for data, however, that included updates on home sales, strikes and lockouts, and more. If you missed some of the material we released earlier this week, check out Zack’s posts on U.S. economic exceptionalism and the economics of Alabama’s ruling that frozen embryos are people (both free for all subscribers).

Monday

Presidents Day

A group of presidential historians ranked the presidents 1-45. Lincoln came in first. You can perhaps guess who ranked last (#45 ranked 45^th), but we take no position on such matters. This tells us little about the presidents and a lot about presidential historians, who seem to really appreciate presidents who held office during a war (GWB aside) and/or greatly expanded the federal government’s size.

Tuesday

Conference Board Leading Economic Index®

This composite index fell in January, but for the first time in the past two years does not forecast a recession during the year ahead. It does, however, suggest GDP growth will slow to roughly 0% during Q2 and Q3 of this year. Don’t read too much into this—these composite measures are overly complicated and, at least over the past few years, have not been particularly informative. Still, pessimists rejoice!!!!!

Gas Prices

Gas prices increased for the fifth straight week and, at $3.39/gallon, are at the highest level since November. Gas prices will keep rising over the next couple months based on seasonal factors and historical patterns. That strongly suggests that consumer confidence is about to tumble.

Diesel Prices

Diesel prices remained unchanged at their highest level since early December.

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

The number of passengers screened by TSA remains about 5% higher on a year-over-year basis as air travel ramps up heading into spring. I was in Miami’s airport this week. What a mess. Just can’t handle all that passenger traffic, especially when a cruise ship comes back into port and releases 6,500 or so passengers into terminals ill-equipped to handle them. Also, terrible bathrooms. If you have a choice, fly through Fort Lauderdale. Terrific airport.

Wednesday

Major Work Stoppages in 2023