Hopeful Week in Review

Jobs, GDP, consumer confidence, & more

This week was packed to the gills with economic data releases, including a wonky GDP print, a perfectly fine jobs report (Zack’s longer report on that here, free for all subscribers), and a potential early warning sign of rising unemployment, among many others.

If you missed our Consumer Tariff Guide earlier this week, be sure to check that out.

Monday

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

I’m amazed. A number of airlines and other operators with exposure to tourism have been warning about softer demand (e.g., Delta, United). Nonetheless, air travel picked up over the past week and is back to being about 2-3% above 2024 levels, according to TSA data. This is good news. Maybe businesses are a little less freaked out about tariffs and are approving more travel, or maybe international tourism—which has struggled mightily due to international tension—is starting to show some signs of life given a weaker US dollar.

Gas Prices & Diesel Prices

Gas prices inched down to $3.26/gallon this week, down $0.53/gallon from the same week last year. While it’s nice to have flat gas prices during a time of year when they typically rise, the reason for the tame prices—softening demand—remains a bit concerning.

Diesel prices fell to $3.51/gallon due to weak demand for truck transportation. Tariffs anyone? Bigger declines in diesel prices are likely ahead unless we get substantial movement on tariffs, especially those 145% tariffs on China.

Tuesday

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer expectations have fallen off a cliff and are now at their lowest level since 2011 (not a great time for the economy, if you’ll recall), though consumers feel a little better about the present situation.

About three out of four consumers now view a recession as likely over the next 12 months. Of course, that was also the case in 2023, when there was no recession. Indeed, the economy performed handsomely that year.

Job Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Employers are hiring and firing at historically low levels, according to this survey, while employees remain reluctant to quit their jobs (at least by recent standards). This makes a lot of sense—with economic uncertainty so elevated, people are reluctant to make changes in any direction.

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S Home Price Index

Home prices increased 0.4% in February and were nearly 4% higher year-over-year, according to this measure of home prices. That’s great for homeowners, but for those Millennials seeking to purchase a house, circumstances remain frustrating. I suspect they will become more so over the next year due to a dearth of new home construction.

Wednesday

First Quarter GDP